Monroe, NY – Real Estate Roller Coaster Going Up or Down?

RealEstate.com’s recent article “Riding the Trillion-Dollar Real Estate Recovery Roller Coaster” indicated the recent housing crash took $70K on average out of every home-owning household. In other words, if you purchased your house at the start of the downward roller coaster cycle, somewhere around 2006-2007, the current price you could get for your home would be, on average, $70K less.   

Real estate results, however, are very local, with sometimes significant differences between national averages and local results.  So the question I’m addressing here is, how does the Monroe, NY area in Orange County differ from the national average?

Unfortunately, in my area of Monroe, NY, the reduction in average sale price since 2007 has been double that national average of $70K, and average sale prices haven’t started to recover yet.  As you can see from the below graph, the average sale price of Monroe, NY homes has decreased from $435K in 2006/7 to less than $300K in 2012.  The only single family homes where this is not true are in the one-bedroom and six plus bedroom categories, but the number of homes sold over the entire five year period is too small to be statistically significant (only 8 one-bedroom homes were sold in the entire seven year period charted below, and the same number of six-bedroom and above).

RealEstate.com’s article also indicated the trough in the latest downward roller coaster ride occurred in November of 2011, and the sale prices are now on the way back up.

Unfortunately, in Monroe, NY, that’s also not the case (yet).  Average monthly sale prices in 2012 did exceed 2011 average prices during the month of August, but for the remainder of the year, sale prices have remained below the 2011 average as indicated below.

So does that mean all gloom and doom for the Monroe, NY area?  No, absolutely not.   If the sales for the rest of the year continue at the same rate as the average thus far in 2012 (about 10 sales per month), 2012 will result in more sales of single family homes than in 2011, and will probably match the 2010 level.  In addition, in the last few months, average sale prices, while not increasing, have been relatively stable.

My estimate is that the Monroe, NY area is a year or so behind the national average, and prices will soon start rising as our local market starts up the next roller coaster hill.

It’s still a great time to buy, with great interest rates and a healthy inventory of homes.  If you are interested in purchasing or renting a home in Monroe, NY, call me on 914-419-0270.  I’m ready to assist!

Source of all data above: Greater Hudson Valley MLXchange