As mentioned in previous posts, the town of Monroe NY real estate market started showing signs of price improvement in 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. However, in April and May 2015, Monroe price results dipped, with a return to first quarter levels in June. So now what’s the story with July 2015?
In the above chart, it’s evident that in 2015 (the red columns), the first three months of the year were looking strong in terms of prices, the next two were weaker and then June and July are both in the same ballpark but slightly worse than 2014. So what exactly is going on in Monroe?
There are still a fair number of short sales and foreclosures available in the area, which can tend to depress sales prices. While short sales (seller owned homes where the bank agrees to less than is owed) tend to sell around the low end of normal market value, foreclosures in this area typically sell below market value, sometimes by quite a bit. They are usually properties that have been vacant for quite a while and need a lot of repair. In mid-August, 18% of all homes on the market in Monroe are either short sales (14%) or foreclosures (4%). In addition, 15% of pending/under contract homes are also distressed properties. Sales of those homes could tend to keep prices from increasing.
Normally when inventory shrinks (the number of houses on the market decreases), prices start to increase. In January of this year, there were 126 houses for sale in Monroe and in the month of July there were 157. While there isn’t a clear correlation in the above chart of inventory to price levels, the important information is that inventory has not been shrinking, and therefore, prices haven’t been seeing significant increases. In mid-August 2015, there are 144 houses on the market which is a slight decrease from July. Does the fact that there are now fewer homes on the market than there were last month mean prices may start inching up? Maybe, although I think we’d need to see a bunch of home sales in the next month or two before that change would happen.
High End Properties
There are several developments in the Monroe area which have in the past helped overall prices rise. The Mansion Ridge development contains gorgeous homes that could bring in prices of up to $800K, while the Prestwick Gardens, Fairway Estates and Briarcliff Estates areas have homes in the $400-600K range. However, new development has for the most part wrapped up, and therefore sales in those areas are dependent upon normal turnover rates. Obviously, fewer high end home sales equate to lower overall market prices.
As always hindsight will be 20/20, but I’m estimating the next few months will continue to have higher volume with prices remaining relatively level, or perhaps decreasing slightly. Once some of the distressed properties have been sold, and inventory decreases, prices should increase. But I don’t foresee that happening too quickly.
If you have any questions about your specific home, and what it might be worth in today’s market, feel free to contact me to discuss. Also, I would be happy to provide information regarding other areas in Orange County NY. Just call!